Robust Raw Material Demand from Smelters, Domestic TCs Expected to Decline in November [SMM Zinc Concentrate Weekly Review]

SMM October 24:

Zinc concentrate TCs continued to decline in November, with the SMM monthly average domestic zinc concentrate TC dropping by 650 yuan/mt in metal content to 3,000 yuan/mt in metal content (guidance price for next month's TCs). Domestic zinc concentrate TCs were further lowered this week. On a weekly basis, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average fell by 150 yuan/mt in metal content to 3,250 yuan/mt in metal content WoW, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by $8.5/dmt to $110.25/dmt WoW.

In the spot market, as the month entered its latter half, domestic smelters continued to aggressively purchase domestic zinc ore due to economic considerations, leading to further reductions in zinc concentrate TCs in multiple regions during the week. Domestic smelters and mines are set to begin negotiations for November zinc concentrate TCs next week. Currently, domestic smelting demand for raw materials remains robust, and amid tight ore supply, zinc concentrate TCs are expected to continue declining in November. For imported zinc ore, losses on imports remained significant this week. However, following the downward trend in domestic zinc concentrate TCs, offers from traders of imported ore were also adjusted lower. Recently, standard zinc concentrate TCs fell to around $100-110/dmt, indicating a pullback from previous highs. Additionally, according to SMM, a zinc mine in North China awarded a tender this week, with the winning bid result at 3,150 yuan/mt in metal content (including a 20-80 sharing scheme).

Latest customs data showed that zinc concentrate imports in September 2025 reached 505,400 mt in physical content, up 8.15% (38,000 mt in physical content) MoM from August and up 24.94% YoY. Cumulative zinc concentrate imports from January to September totaled 4.008 million mt in physical content, up 40.49% YoY.

SMM zinc concentrate inventory at main ports in China totaled 391,400 mt in physical content this week, up 10,800 mt in physical content WoW.